House Advances Bill to Ban Lawmakers from Prediction Markets

The House Administration Committee voted along party lines to move forward a new bill, the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, which seeks to prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from buying contracts that predict election results, government actions, or other political outcomes.

Republican Chairman Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the legislation, emphasizing that the public deserves assurance that elected officials are not profiting from insider knowledge. The bill sets penalties of a $2,000 fine or a fine equal to ten percent of the contract’s value, plus any net gains, for those who violate the ban. The act would become effective 180 days after it receives final approval from the House.

The proposal mirrors a Senate resolution passed earlier this year that unanimously barred senators and their staff from all prediction‑market activity. Senate leaders credited the swift, two‑page resolution with quickly protecting the integrity of the legislative process. House leaders argue a similar approach is needed to restore public trust in the Capitol.

Democratic members of the committee expressed concerns that the House version contains loopholes that could undermine its effectiveness. Rep. Joe Morelle warned that the bill’s language resembles a sieve, leaving potential avenues for indirect participation or future loophole exploitation. Critics also note that the bill does not address all forms of political wagering, limiting its scope.

Supporters contend that the legislation is a necessary step toward preventing market manipulation and conflicts of interest, reinforcing ethical standards for public officials. By restricting access to platforms like Kalshi, where political contracts are traded, the act aims to eliminate any appearance of impropriety and safeguard democratic processes.

As the bill returns to the House floor, lawmakers will debate whether additional amendments are required to close perceived gaps and align the measure fully with the Senate’s broader ban. The outcome will shape how Congress addresses the emerging challenge of prediction‑market participation by elected officials.